[Direct-to-AIP] CAPO SnapshotRatio Update Across Aave V3: October 2026
What this rests on
Summary in preparation.
Market reaction
+0.90 %
before publication
+0.28 %
after
$160price at publication
12series points
The move was larger before the first headline than after. That is an observation, not an explanation: the market also moves on things nobody publishes.
How the story was built
Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.
first
Aave governance forum
scoop
Oct 13 17:42
Aave governance forum
scoop
Breaks the event
+1 h 54 m
Aave governance forum
adds
Oct 13 19:37
Aave governance forum
adds
Brings into the story: IRM
Has this happened before?
| When | What happened | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| 4 days ago | Aave V4 Deposits on Circle’s Arc Blockchain Surpass $300 Million event | 1 actors in common · 2 news media |
| 7 days ago | Aave MCP now connects with MetaMask Agent Wallet for AI-driven DeFi actions event | 1 actors in common · 3 news media |
| 8 days ago | Citrini Research Highlights Aave, Ondo and Uniswap for Tokenization event | 1 actors in common · 2 news media |
| 8 days ago | Wall Street's tokenization boom could have bigger winners than bitcoin and ether, Citrini says event | 1 actors in common · 3 news media |
| 8 days ago | Aave Lists December AUSD PT on Monad With 93% Borrowing Limit event | 1 actors in common · 3 news media |
What could happen next
What the prediction markets currently price as likely. This is context, not a forecast of ours: there is money on it, and that is all we show.
1 %
no series
Kalshi · $1,022,099 of open interest · resolves on Oct 1, 2026
100 %
no series
Polymarket · $419,547 negociados en 24 h · resolves on Oct 4, 2026
100 %
no series
Polymarket · $374,115 negociados en 24 h · resolves on Oct 3, 2026
100 %
no series
Polymarket · $319,271 negociados en 24 h · resolves on Oct 1, 2026