What it costs banks to borrow overnight — the price of money, set by the Fed.
Money is getting more expensive. Safe deposits start paying, so there is less reason to hold anything that pays nothing.
figure dated Sep 2026
The same four numbers were sitting at the top of the calendar without a word of what they mean. A calendar says what is coming; this says where we are.
Right now
Rates holding, money supply growing, inflation accelerating
the price of money is flat · the quantity of money is growing · inflation is accelerating.
What the US government pays to borrow for ten years — the price of patience.
Waiting is getting cheaper, which lifts the same assets it was pressing on.
figure dated Oct 2026
How many dollars exist in deposits and cash — the quantity of money.
There are more dollars looking for somewhere to sit. It is the slowest of these figures and the one with the longest shadow.
figure dated Aug 2026
The price of everything else, as a level. What matters is how fast it is climbing.
Prices are accelerating, which is the argument for keeping money expensive.
figure dated Sep 2026
The inflation measure the Fed actually watches, with food and fuel taken out.
The measure that decides policy is going the wrong way.
figure dated Aug 2026
How many people are looking for work and cannot find it.
Two things at once, and pretending otherwise would be dishonest: a weaker economy, and a stronger case for cutting rates. Which one the market trades depends on how fast it is rising.
figure dated Sep 2026
| When | Release |
|---|---|
|
Oct 29
in 13 days
|
Gross Domestic Product |
|
Oct 29
in 13 days
|
Personal Income and Outlays |
|
Nov 6
in 21 days
|
Employment Situation |
|
Nov 10
in 25 days
|
Consumer Price Index |
|
Nov 10
in 25 days
|
Research Consumer Price Index |
And what happened around the last ones
week before $83,296
-0.1 %
the day before $83,180
-1.8 %
two days after $81,661
The move came after, not before: -0.1% running in and -1.8% once the figure was out.
week before $84,070
+0.9 %
the day before $84,824
+2.2 %
two days after $86,674
The move came after, not before: +0.9% running in and +2.2% once the figure was out.
week before $86,183
-2.9 %
the day before $83,659
+1.0 %
two days after $84,510
Most of the movement happened before the figure landed: -2.9% in the week running in against +1.0% after it.