Mark Moss: The Bitcoin Endgame – BTC to $1 Million by 2030
What this rests on
Summary in preparation.
Market reaction
+0.29 %
before publication
+0.22 %
after
$83,685price at publication
12series points
The move was larger before the first headline than after. That is an observation, not an explanation: the market also moves on things nobody publishes.
How the story was built
Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.
first
Bitcoin Magazine
scoop
Oct 1 00:45
Bitcoin Magazine
scoop
Breaks the event: $40000B and $1M
Has this happened before?
| When | What happened | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| 17 days ago | Live updates: Bitcoin below $84,000 ahead of PCE inflation data, Micron earnings event | 1 actors in common · 2 news media |
| 17 days ago | FOMC Polymarket Odds: A Rate Hold Regains the Edge in October Pricing event | 1 actors in common · 4 news media |
| 17 days ago | US PCE Inflation Is a Big Test for Stocks, Crypto, and Trump event | 1 actors in common · 3 news media |
| 17 days ago | Fed Governor Cook cites data center spending as key factor delaying inflation’s return to 2% event | 1 actors in common · 2 news media |
| 17 days ago | October Fed Rate Hike Odds Drop to 44% After Williams’ Dovish Remarks event | 1 actors in common · 4 news media |
What could happen next
What the prediction markets currently price as likely. This is context, not a forecast of ours: there is money on it, and that is all we show.
2 %
+1 pts
Kalshi · $4,415,187 of open interest · resolves on Jan 1, 2027
0 %
no series
Kalshi · $1,148,516 of open interest · resolves on Oct 2, 2026
0 %
no series
Kalshi · $1,135,683 of open interest · resolves on Oct 6, 2026
1 %
no series
Kalshi · $1,022,099 of open interest · resolves on Oct 1, 2026