macroeconomics

Polymarket Bitcoin and Rate Hike Odds Shift as CME Says No Change

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Key claims & sources

Summary in preparation.

Market reaction i

BitcoinBTC the event is about this asset
first headline
-0.1% 2 h before
-0.7% 4 h after
$81,555price at publication
12data points

Coverage timeline

Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.

first
Oct 16 15:35
Cryptonews.com scoop
Breaks the event: $43M

What Federal funds rate has done before

WhenWhat happenedFigure
38 days ago Federal funds rate: 3.88 (+0.13) rise Oct 2026
2 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.75 (+0.12) rise Sep 2026
3 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Aug 2026
4 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Jul 2026
5 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Jun 2026

FRED series, with the value of each release and its change.

What could happen next i

Fed Decision in December? Polymarket · settles Dec 9 · $244.9k bet in 24 h
76% 25 bps increase
  • 25 bps increase 76%
  • No change ▲1 22%
  • 50+ bps decrease <1%
  • 25 bps decrease <1%
  • 1 more1%
25 bps increase, last 16 days
Fed decision in Dec 2026? Kalshi · settles Dec 9 · $120.1k bet in 24 h
77% Hike 25bps ▼ 1 pts in 24 h
  • Hike 25bps ▼1 77%
  • Fed maintains rate ▲3 24%
  • Hike >25bps ▲1 2%
  • Cut 25bps 2%
  • 1 more1%
Hike 25bps, last 16 days
Fed rate cut by...? Polymarket · settles Jan 29 · $19.8k bet in 24 h
1% December 2026 Meeting
  • December 2026 Meeting 1%
  • October 2026 Meeting <1%
December 2026 Meeting, last 16 days