Bitwise lifts bitcoin forecast to $1.6 million by 2036

Bitwise built its name on the spot bitcoin ETF it launched in January 2024, and like BlackRock or Vanguard with stocks and bonds, it now publishes annual long-term capital market assumptions to guide portfolio allocation. Last year's edition put the 2036 base case at $1.3 million; this year's, badged the '2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions', raises that to $1,599,766, built on an assumed 34.3% annualized growth rate.

Financial advisors and institutional allocators use these assumptions to size bitcoin positions inside diversified portfolios, treating the base case as a planning input rather than a prediction. A bigger headline number gives wealth managers a fresh talking point to justify or expand existing allocations, while the published bear case of $130,686 gives the same advisors a documented downside to show clients who ask what happens if the bull thesis fails. (per blockchain.news)

A model spanning from $130,686 to $3.67 million over the same eleven years exposes how wide the uncertainty band really is, even as the headline figure is quoted to the exact dollar. That precision-looking number sitting atop a forecast with 27.8% average volatility is worth treating with some skepticism: long-horizon capital market assumptions are modeling exercises, not commitments, and the gap between bear and bull cases here is wider than in any mainstream asset class.

The real test is whether institutional buying keeps pace with the growth rate Bitwise has baked into its model, since the firm explicitly links its upgrade to continued institutional accumulation rather than retail demand. Watch Bitwise's next annual revision of these assumptions, and whether ETF and corporate treasury inflows over the coming year track the 34.3% annualized path or fall toward the bear case Bitwise itself has now put on paper.

BitcoinBTC the event is about this asset

The move was larger before the first headline than after. That is an observation, not an explanation: the market also moves on things nobody publishes.