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Fed to decide on potential rate rise before US midterms

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Key claims & sources

Summary in preparation.

Market reaction i

Total crypto marketall crypto assets combined no single asset in the event: read against the whole market
first headline
-0.3% 2 h before
+0.6% 4 h after
$2.7Tmarket cap at publication
12data points

Coverage timeline

Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.

first
Oct 28 16:51
Financial Times scoop
Breaks the event

Has this happened before?

WhenWhat happenedFigure
29 days ago OpenAI, Anthropic, AMD and others are committing more than $1 billion to Trump’s Genesis Mission event 1 actors in common · 2 news media
36 days ago Trump weighs Intel-style ownership stakes in OpenAI and Anthropic event 1 actors in common · 3 news media

What could happen next i

Fed Decision in December? Polymarket · settles Dec 9 · $2.1M bet in 24 h
64% 25 bps increase ▼ 13 pts in 24 h
  • 25 bps increase ▼13 64%
  • No change ▲12 34%
  • 25 bps decrease ▲1 1%
  • 50+ bps decrease <1%
  • 1 more1%
25 bps increase, last 16 days
Fed decision in Dec 2026? Kalshi · settles Dec 9 · $216.6k bet in 24 h
65% Hike 25bps ▼ 15 pts in 24 h
  • Hike 25bps ▼15 65%
  • Fed maintains rate ▲13 33%
  • Cut 25bps ▲1 2%
  • Hike >25bps ▼1 1%
  • 1 more1%
Hike 25bps, last 15 days
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Polymarket · settles Dec 10 · $92.6k bet in 24 h
64% Yes ▼ 14 pts in 24 h
  • Yes ▼14 64%
  • No ▲14 36%
Yes, last 16 days