A $3.2 million 'bitcoin butterfly' option trade bets on $95,000 by the end of October
What this rests on
Summary in preparation.
Market reaction
We track BTC, but we only have 1 price point in that window. The series is stored every half hour, so newer events will have it. Computing it from two points would not be a reaction, it would be a coincidence.
How the story was built
Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.
first
CoinDesk
scoop
Sep 22 11:35
Breaks the event: $3.2M
Has this happened before?
Nothing comparable yet.
What could happen next
What the prediction markets currently price as likely. This is context, not a forecast of ours: there is money on it, and that is all we show.
2 %
+0 pts
Kalshi · $4,517,337 of open interest · resolves on Jan 1, 2027
1 %
no series
Kalshi · $1,022,099 of open interest · resolves on Oct 1, 2026
4 %
+1 pts
Kalshi · $754,413 of open interest · resolves on Jan 1, 2027
11 %
+0 pts
Kalshi · $601,350 of open interest · resolves on Jan 1, 2027