[ARFC] Revision of ETH & BTC Collateral Efficiency on Aave
What this rests on
Summary in preparation.
Market reaction
We track BTC, but we only have 1 price point in that window. The series is stored every half hour, so newer events will have it. Computing it from two points would not be a reaction, it would be a coincidence.
How the story was built
Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.
first
Aave governance forum
scoop
our clock
Sep 22 21:34
Aave governance forum
scoop
our clock
Breaks the event
Has this happened before?
Nothing comparable yet.
What could happen next
What the prediction markets currently price as likely. This is context, not a forecast of ours: there is money on it, and that is all we show.
0 %
no series
Kalshi · $1,148,516 of open interest · resolves on Oct 2, 2026
0 %
no series
Kalshi · $1,135,683 of open interest · resolves on Oct 6, 2026
10 %
+2 pts
Kalshi · $1,023,663 of open interest · resolves on Jan 1, 2027
5 %
no series
Kalshi · $874,949 of open interest · resolves on Oct 1, 2026