Bitcoin falls below $82K after US inflation tops 3.6% forecast
Bitcoin moved lower in two separate inflation-driven episodes, first after September US consumer prices came in above expectations and then after stronger-than-expected US producer inflation. In the first move, Bitcoin fell by roughly $1,000 to about $82,800, and in the second it dropped 3.6% over 24 hours to around $81,500.
What this rests on
Market reaction
How the story was built
Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.
What Inflation (US CPI) has done before
| When | What happened | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| 2 months ago | Inflation (US CPI): 336.298 (+2.17) rise | Sep 2026 |
| 3 months ago | Inflation (US CPI): 334.131 (+1.32) rise | Aug 2026 |
| 4 months ago | Inflation (US CPI): 332.813 (+0.25) rise | Jul 2026 |
| 5 months ago | Inflation (US CPI): 332.568 (-1.41) fall | Jun 2026 |
| 6 months ago | Inflation (US CPI): 333.979 (+1.57) rise | May 2026 |
FRED series, with the value of each release and its change.
What could happen next
What the prediction markets currently price as likely. This is context, not a forecast of ours: there is money on it, and that is all we show.