macroeconomics

Bitcoin price eyes $74K as Fed rate-hike bets hit 96% after Waller speech

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Key claims & sources

Summary in preparation.

Market reaction i

BitcoinBTC the event is about this asset

Bitcoin fell 0.2% in the 4 hours after the first headline, after falling 0.4% in the 2 hours before.

$74,432 price at the headline
-0.4% 2 h before
-0.2% 4 h after
-0.2% 1 h after (so far)
First headline

24 prices, one every 30 minutes · The move was larger before the first headline than after: an observation, not an explanation. The market also moves on things nobody publishes.

Coverage timeline

Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.

first
Nov 10 10:08
+14 min
Nov 10 10:22
Crypto Briefing context
Its angle: sensitivity, highlights, impacting

Has this happened before?

WhenWhat happenedFigure
1 days ago Bitcoin Under Pressure Again Ahead of 4 Major Market-Moving Events event 1 actors in common · 3 news media
1 days ago China's 5.7% Factory Inflation Could Complicate the Fed Path Before US CPI event 1 actors in common · 2 news media
3 days ago October jobs surge raises odds of December Fed rate hike event 1 actors in common · 2 news media
4 days ago Fed’s Daly signals further policy tightening amid inflation concerns event 1 actors in common · 2 news media
9 days ago Tech selloff may ease pressure on the Federal Reserve, says BMO economist event 1 actors in common · 2 news media

What could happen next i

Fed Decision in December? Polymarket · settles Dec 9 · $3.2M bet in 24 h
88% 25 bps increase ▲ 12 pts in 24 h
  • 25 bps increase ▲12 88%
  • No change ▼16 6%
  • 50+ bps increase ▲4 5%
  • 25 bps decrease <1%
25 bps increase, last 16 days
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Polymarket · settles Dec 10 · $170.1k bet in 24 h
90% Yes ▲ 15 pts in 24 h
  • Yes ▲15 90%
  • No ▼15 9%
Yes, last 16 days
Fed decision in Dec 2026? Kalshi · settles Dec 9 · $121.3k bet in 24 h
81% Hike 25bps ▲ 4 pts in 24 h
  • Hike 25bps ▲4 81%
  • Fed maintains rate ▼3 20%
  • Cut 25bps 2%
  • Hike >25bps ▼1 1%
  • 1 more1%
Hike 25bps, last 16 days