92%
No change
▲ 2 pts in 24 h
- No change ▲2 92%
- 25 bps increase ▼2 8%
- 50+ bps increase <1%
- 25 bps decrease <1%
No change, last 7 days
Bitcoin Stalls Above $85,000 as Weak Jobs Report Cuts Odds of an October Rate Hike
Published
What this rests on
Summary in preparation.
Market reaction
-0.59 %
before publication
+0.20 %
after
$85,886price at publication
12series points
The move was larger before the first headline than after. That is an observation, not an explanation: the market also moves on things nobody publishes.
How the story was built
Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.
first
Unchained
scoop
Oct 5 09:40
Unchained
scoop
Breaks the event
What Federal funds rate has done before
| When | What happened | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| 2 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.75 (+0.12) rise | Sep 2026 |
| 3 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Aug 2026 |
| 4 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Jul 2026 |
| 5 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Jun 2026 |
| 6 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 (-0.01) fall | May 2026 |
FRED series, with the value of each release and its change.
What could happen next i
91%
Fed maintains rate
▲ 2 pts in 24 h
- Fed maintains rate ▲2 91%
- Hike 25bps ▼4 8%
- Cut 25bps 1%
- Hike >25bps 1%
- 1 more1%
Fed maintains rate, last 7 days
98%
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?
- No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27? 98%
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?, last 7 days