60%
Above 0.2%
▼ 1 pts in 24 h
- Above 0.1% 94%
- Above 0.2% 60%
- Above 0.3% 13%
- Above 0.4% 1%
- Above 0.5% 1%
Above 0.2%, last 15 days
Bitcoin Tests $81,000 as Rate Hike Fears Linger After Hot Inflation Data
3Importance
closedStatus
4News media
- Published
Bitcoin traded near $81,000 while traders kept an eye on renewed expectations for a Federal Reserve hike in October. The two stories tie that move to a hotter September inflation reading and to a shift in market pricing for the Fed meeting.
Key claims & sources
✓
Bitcoin tested the $81,000 level as concerns about a possible October Fed hike remained in the market.
✓
Market odds of an October Fed hike rose to 29% from 18% a week earlier.
✓
September CPI came in at 3.7% year over year, above August’s 3.4%.
✓
Core CPI rose to 2.6% year over year, after 2.4% in the prior month and above expectations.
What it means
Bitcoin holders and short-term traders are the groups most likely to notice this first, because Bitcoin was testing $81,000 while October Fed-hike odds moved higher. That keeps attention on macro data and policy expectations rather than on a fresh crypto-specific catalyst today.
Market reaction i
Bitcoin rose 1.6% in the 4 hours after the first headline, after falling 0.1% in the 2 hours before.
$81,030
price at the headline
-0.1%
2 h before
+1.6%
4 h after
+1.3%
12 h after
First headline
48 prices, one every 30 minutes
Coverage timeline
Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.
first
Decrypt
scoop
Oct 15 11:48
Decrypt
scoop
Breaks the event
+58 min
Oct 15 12:46
CP
CryptoPotato
context
Its angle: particularly, disappearing, expectations
+2 h 5 m
The Defiant
context
Oct 15 13:53
Its angle: probability, accelerates, polymarket
+4 h 4 m
Bitcoin Magazine
context
Oct 15 15:53
Bitcoin Magazine
context
Its angle: cryptocurrency, momentarily, statistics
What Federal funds rate has done before
| When | What happened | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| 39 days ago | Federal funds rate: 3.88 (+0.13) rise | Oct 2026 |
| 2 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.75 (+0.12) rise | Sep 2026 |
| 3 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Aug 2026 |
| 4 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Jul 2026 |
| 5 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Jun 2026 |
FRED series, with the value of each release and its change.
What could happen next i
86%
2.6%
- 2.6% 86%
- 2.5% ▲4 8%
- 2.7% ▼6 2%
- 2.4% <1%
- 6 more1%
2.6%, last 15 days
44%
0.3%
▲ 1 pts in 24 h
- 0.3% ▲1 44%
- 0.2% ▲2 38%
- 0.4% 8%
- ≤0.1% ▼1 6%
0.3%, last 15 days