Crypto Market Plunges as US Inflation Fuels FED Rate Hike Fears – What’s Next for Bitcoin Price Rally?

29Importance
developingStatus
1News media
Published

Key claims & sources

Summary in preparation.

Market reaction i

BitcoinBTC the event is about this asset

Bitcoin barely moved in the 4 hours after the first headline, after falling 0.1% in the 2 hours before.

$73,774 price at the headline
-0.1% 2 h before
0.0% 4 h after
0.0% 4 h after (so far)
First headline

32 prices, one every 30 minutes · The move was larger before the first headline than after: an observation, not an explanation. The market also moves on things nobody publishes.

Coverage timeline

Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.

What Federal funds rate has done before

WhenWhat happenedFigure
42 days ago Federal funds rate: 3.88 (+0.13) rise Oct 2026
2 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.75 (+0.12) rise Sep 2026
3 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Aug 2026
4 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Jul 2026
5 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Jun 2026

FRED series, with the value of each release and its change.

What could happen next i

Fed Decision in December? Polymarket · settles Dec 9 · $4.6M bet in 24 h
86% 25 bps increase ▼ 1 pts in 24 h
  • 25 bps increase ▼1 86%
  • 50+ bps increase ▲6 11%
  • No change ▼3 4%
  • 25 bps decrease <1%
25 bps increase, last 16 days
Fed Decision in January? Polymarket · settles Jan 28 · $1.1M bet in 24 h
50% 25 bps increase ▲ 24 pts in 24 h
  • 25 bps increase ▲24 50%
  • No change ▼23 48%
  • 25 bps decrease ▼1 <1%
  • 50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps increase, last 16 days
Fed decision in Dec 2026? Kalshi · settles Dec 9 · $707.7k bet in 24 h
86% Hike 25bps
  • Hike 25bps 86%
  • Hike >25bps ▲6 11%
  • Fed maintains rate ▼3 5%
  • Cut 25bps 1%
  • 1 more1%
Hike 25bps, last 16 days