Fed May Pause Rate Hike in October, but a December Hike Is Still on the Table

MACROECONOMICSFed May Pause Rate Hike inOctober, but a December HikeIs Still on the Table45IMPORTANCEQUIET2NEWS MEDIA2PIECESOct 17, 2026 15:36blockboard.net

Published

In Macro

Markets are pricing in a high chance that the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at its October meeting, with one piece putting the hold odds at 87% and another saying the chance of a hike is only 15%.[54598][53802] Both pieces also keep December on the radar, saying a later rate increase is still possible if inflation and oil prices remain elevated.[53802]

What this rests on

Claim by claim, with its source
✓
Markets are assigning only a 15% chance to a rate hike at the October meeting.
✓
A later increase in December is still being kept in view if inflation stays high and oil prices remain elevated.
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The probability of the Fed holding rates steady at its October meeting stands at 87%, while the chance of a 25-basis-point hike is 14%.
✓
The October meeting is increasingly expected to leave interest rates unchanged despite ongoing inflation concerns.

What it means

Who it affects, what changes and what is still unconfirmed

Each sentence links inside to the piece that supports it.

Borrowers, traders, and the wider crypto sector see a market that is leaning toward no change at the Fed’s October meeting, so the next morning starts with expectations centered on steady rates rather than an immediate hike. That affects how closely they watch the policy calendar and inflation data already in view.

In practice, the immediate difference is that an October hike looks less likely than it did before, while the possibility of a December move remains part of the outlook. What stays the same is that inflation and oil prices are still part of the policy picture, so the October decision does not settle the larger rate path.

Market reaction

BT Bitcoin market event: it is read against the reference from 2 h before to 4 h after the line marks the first headline
published
+0.14 % before publication
-0.06 % after
$81,508price at publication
13series points

The move was larger before the first headline than after. That is an observation, not an explanation: the market also moves on things nobody publishes.

How the story was built

Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.

first
Oct 17 12:23
+1 d 6 h
Oct 18 18:30
Cryptonews.com context
Its angle: 2111064744689795532, expectations, increasingly; with quotes

What Federal funds rate has done before

WhenWhat happenedFigure
2 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.75 (+0.12) rise Sep 2026
3 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Aug 2026
4 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Jul 2026
5 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Jun 2026
6 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 (-0.01) fall May 2026

FRED series, with the value of each release and its change.

What could happen next i

Fed Decision in October? Polymarket · settles Oct 29 · $595.0k bet in 24 h
86% No change
  • No change 86%
  • 25 bps increase 14%
  • 50+ bps increase <1%
  • 25 bps decrease <1%
Fed decision in Oct 2026? Kalshi · settles Oct 28 · $42.4k bet in 24 h
87% Fed maintains rate
  • Fed maintains rate 87%
  • Hike 25bps 14%
  • Cut 25bps 1%
  • Cut >25bps 1%
  • 1 more1%