- No change 86%
- 25 bps increase 14%
- 50+ bps increase <1%
- 25 bps decrease <1%
Fed May Pause Rate Hike in October, but a December Hike Is Still on the Table
Published
Markets are pricing in a high chance that the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at its October meeting, with one piece putting the hold odds at 87% and another saying the chance of a hike is only 15%.[54598][53802] Both pieces also keep December on the radar, saying a later rate increase is still possible if inflation and oil prices remain elevated.[53802]
What this rests on
What it means
Each sentence links inside to the piece that supports it.
Borrowers, traders, and the wider crypto sector see a market that is leaning toward no change at the Fed’s October meeting, so the next morning starts with expectations centered on steady rates rather than an immediate hike. That affects how closely they watch the policy calendar and inflation data already in view.
In practice, the immediate difference is that an October hike looks less likely than it did before, while the possibility of a December move remains part of the outlook. What stays the same is that inflation and oil prices are still part of the policy picture, so the October decision does not settle the larger rate path.
Market reaction
The move was larger before the first headline than after. That is an observation, not an explanation: the market also moves on things nobody publishes.
How the story was built
Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.
What Federal funds rate has done before
| When | What happened | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| 2 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.75 (+0.12) rise | Sep 2026 |
| 3 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Aug 2026 |
| 4 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Jul 2026 |
| 5 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Jun 2026 |
| 6 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 (-0.01) fall | May 2026 |
FRED series, with the value of each release and its change.
What could happen next i
- Fed maintains rate 87%
- Hike 25bps 14%
- Cut 25bps 1%
- Cut >25bps 1%
- 1 more1%
- No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27? ▲2 96%