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Fed to decide on potential rate rise before US midterms

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Key claims & sources

Summary in preparation.

Market reaction i

Total crypto marketall crypto assets combined no single asset in the event: read against the whole market
first headline
-0.3% 2 h before
+0.6% 4 h after
$2.7Tmarket cap at publication
12data points

Coverage timeline

Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.

first
Oct 28 16:51
Financial Times scoop
Breaks the event

Has this happened before?

WhenWhat happenedFigure
31 days ago OpenAI, Anthropic, AMD and others are committing more than $1 billion to Trump’s Genesis Mission event 1 actors in common · 2 news media
38 days ago Trump weighs Intel-style ownership stakes in OpenAI and Anthropic event 1 actors in common · 3 news media

What could happen next i

Fed Decision in December? Polymarket · settles Dec 9 · $136.4k bet in 24 h
76% 25 bps increase
  • 25 bps increase 76%
  • No change 22%
  • 25 bps decrease <1%
  • 50+ bps decrease <1%
  • 1 more1%
25 bps increase, last 16 days
Fed decision in Dec 2026? Kalshi · settles Dec 9 · $28.9k bet in 24 h
77% Hike 25bps
  • Hike 25bps 77%
  • Fed maintains rate ▼2 23%
  • Hike >25bps ▲1 2%
  • Cut 25bps 2%
  • 1 more1%
Hike 25bps, last 16 days
Fed rate cut by...? Polymarket · settles Jan 29 · $19.8k bet in 24 h
2% December 2026 Meeting
  • December 2026 Meeting 2%
  • October 2026 Meeting <1%
December 2026 Meeting, last 15 days