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Fed Week Puts Stocks, Bitcoin, and DXY on Collision Course Before $11 Billion Expiry

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Key claims & sources

Summary in preparation.

Market reaction i

BitcoinBTC it is the asset of the company or protocol in the event
first headline
+0.3% 2 h before
-0.5% 4 h after
$80,733price at publication
12data points

Coverage timeline

Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.

first
Oct 25 17:54

What could happen next i

Fed Decision in December? Polymarket · settles Dec 9 · $91.5k bet in 24 h
76% 25 bps increase
  • 25 bps increase 76%
  • No change ▲1 22%
  • 25 bps decrease <1%
  • 50+ bps decrease <1%
  • 1 more1%
25 bps increase, last 16 days
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Polymarket · settles Jan 1 · $37.9k bet in 24 h
98% 0 (0 bps)
  • 0 (0 bps) 98%
  • 1 (25 bps) 1%
  • 2 (50 bps) <1%
  • 4 (100 bps) <1%
0 (0 bps), last 16 days
Fed Decision in January? Polymarket · settles Jan 28 · $27.6k bet in 24 h
78% No change ▲ 4 pts in 24 h
  • No change ▲4 78%
  • 25 bps increase 18%
  • 25 bps decrease 3%
  • 50+ bps decrease ▼1 <1%
  • 1 more1%
No change, last 16 days