macroeconomics

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

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1News media
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Key claims & sources

Summary in preparation.

Market reaction i

Total crypto marketall crypto assets combined no single asset in the event: read against the whole market
first headline
-0.2% 2 h before
0.0% 4 h after
$2.9Tmarket cap at publication
12data points

The move was larger before the first headline than after. That is an observation, not an explanation: the market also moves on things nobody publishes.

Coverage timeline

Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.

first
Sep 29 20:45
Federal Reserve press index (JSON) scoop our clock
Breaks the event

What Federal funds rate has done before

WhenWhat happenedFigure
2 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.75 (+0.12) rise Sep 2026
3 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Aug 2026
4 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Jul 2026
5 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Jun 2026
6 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 (-0.01) fall May 2026

FRED series, with the value of each release and its change.

What could happen next i

Fed Decision in October? Polymarket · settles Oct 29 · $21.4M bet in 24 h
100% No change ▲ 4 pts in 24 h
  • No change ▲4 100%
  • 50+ bps increase <1%
  • 25 bps decrease <1%
  • 25 bps increase ▼4 <1%
No change, last 12 days
Fed Decision in December? Polymarket · settles Dec 9 · $1.7M bet in 24 h
79% 25 bps increase ▲ 3 pts in 24 h
  • 25 bps increase ▲3 79%
  • No change ▼4 18%
  • 50+ bps increase 2%
  • 25 bps decrease <1%
25 bps increase, last 12 days