76%
25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase 76%
- No change ▲1 22%
- 25 bps decrease <1%
- 50+ bps decrease <1%
- 1 more1%
25 bps increase, last 15 days
FOMC Polymarket Odds: A Rate Hold Regains the Edge in October Pricing
0Importance
closedStatus
3News media
- Published
Polymarket pricing on the October 27-28 Federal Reserve meeting moved from favoring a 25-basis-point hike to favoring no change over the same week. Across the six updates, the hold side ranged from 57% to 66%, while hike odds fell from the mid-60s to the mid-30s or low-40s. The shift left the October decision unresolved, with some coverage also noting attention to later meetings or to Bitcoin.
Key claims & sources
✓
Another Polymarket snapshot on September 30 put the probability of no change at 58.5% and the chance of a 25-basis-point hike at 41.5%.
✓
On September 27, Polymarket traders priced a 64% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the Federal Reserve’s October 27-28 meeting.
✓
By September 30, the same contract showed no change at 57% and a 25-basis-point hike at 42%.
✓
One update put the hold probability at 64% and the chance of a 25-basis-point increase at 36%, while also showing higher cumulative hike odds by December.
What it means
What has changed in practice is the market’s balance on the October 27-28 decision: earlier snapshots had a hike in front, and later snapshots put no change ahead. What has not changed is that the contract still leaves both outcomes active, and one update also kept an eye on higher cumulative hike odds by December. That means the October contract is still a pricing screen, not a settled policy outcome.
Market reaction i
Data Network rose 0.5% in the 4 hours after the first headline, after rising 0.5% in the 2 hours before.
$0.2184
price at the headline
+0.5%
2 h before
+0.5%
4 h after
0.0%
12 h after
First headline
48 prices, one every 30 minutes · The move was larger before the first headline than after: an observation, not an explanation. The market also moves on things nobody publishes.
Coverage timeline
Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.
first
Cryptonews.com
scoop
Sep 30 10:00
Cryptonews.com
scoop
Breaks the event: $31B and $28.5B
+4 h 24 m
Coinspeaker
context
Sep 30 14:25
Coinspeaker
context
Its angle: speculative, government, attractive
+8 h 24 m
Crypto Briefing
context
Sep 30 18:25
Crypto Briefing
context
Its angle: uncertainty, adjustments, influencing
+1 d 4 h
Coinspeaker
echo
Oct 1 14:42
Coinspeaker
echo
No new facts: njn7mb6blx, 9dxuptesn4, plummeted
What Federal funds rate has done before
| When | What happened | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| 39 days ago | Federal funds rate: 3.88 (+0.13) rise | Oct 2026 |
| 2 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.75 (+0.12) rise | Sep 2026 |
| 3 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Aug 2026 |
| 4 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Jul 2026 |
| 5 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Jun 2026 |
FRED series, with the value of each release and its change.
What could happen next i
98%
0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps) 98%
- 1 (25 bps) 1%
- 2 (50 bps) <1%
- 4 (100 bps) <1%
0 (0 bps), last 15 days
78%
No change
▲ 4 pts in 24 h
- No change ▲4 78%
- 25 bps increase 18%
- 25 bps decrease 3%
- 50+ bps decrease ▼1 <1%
- 1 more1%
No change, last 15 days