69%
Above 3.8%
- Above 3.6% 85%
- Above 3.7% 78%
- Above 3.8% 69%
- Above 3.9% 48%
- Above 4.1% 20%
What this rests on
Summary in preparation.
Market reaction
We track BTC, but we only have 1 price point in that window. The series is stored every half hour, so newer events will have it. Computing it from two points would not be a reaction, it would be a coincidence.
How the story was built
Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.
first
Sep 22 20:35
What Inflation (US CPI) has done before
| When | What happened | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| 2 months ago | Inflation (US CPI): 336.298 (+2.17) rise | Sep 2026 |
| 3 months ago | Inflation (US CPI): 334.131 (+1.32) rise | Aug 2026 |
| 4 months ago | Inflation (US CPI): 332.813 (+0.25) rise | Jul 2026 |
| 5 months ago | Inflation (US CPI): 332.568 (-1.41) fall | Jun 2026 |
| 6 months ago | Inflation (US CPI): 333.979 (+1.57) rise | May 2026 |
FRED series, with the value of each release and its change.
What could happen next i
63%
Above 0.2%
- Above 0.0% 96%
- Above 0.1% 85%
- Above 0.2% 63%
- Above 0.3% 26%
- Above 0.4% 15%
71%
Above 0.1%
- Above -0.1% 88%
- Above 0.0% 82%
- Above 0.1% 71%
- Above 0.2% 46%
- Above 0.4% 19%