88%
25 bps increase
▲ 12 pts in 24 h
- 25 bps increase ▲12 88%
- No change ▼16 6%
- 50+ bps increase ▲4 5%
- 25 bps decrease <1%
25 bps increase, last 16 days
unclassified
Interest rates expected to rise for first time in over three years
0Importance
closedStatus
1News media
- Published
Key claims & sources
Summary in preparation.
Market reaction i
Total crypto marketall crypto assets combined
no single asset in the event: read against the whole market
The total crypto market fell 0.1% in the 4 hours after the first headline, after rising 0.3% in the 2 hours before.
$2.7T
market cap at the headline
+0.3%
2 h before
-0.1%
4 h after
-1.4%
12 h after
First headline
48 prices, one every 30 minutes · The move was larger before the first headline than after: an observation, not an explanation. The market also moves on things nobody publishes.
Coverage timeline
Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.
first
BBC News — Business
scoop
Nov 5 00:00
BBC News — Business
scoop
Breaks the event
What Federal funds rate has done before
| When | What happened | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| 40 days ago | Federal funds rate: 3.88 (+0.13) rise | Oct 2026 |
| 2 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.75 (+0.12) rise | Sep 2026 |
| 3 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Aug 2026 |
| 4 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Jul 2026 |
| 5 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Jun 2026 |
FRED series, with the value of each release and its change.
What could happen next i
90%
Yes
▲ 15 pts in 24 h
- Yes ▲15 90%
- No ▼15 9%
Yes, last 16 days
81%
Hike 25bps
▲ 4 pts in 24 h
- Hike 25bps ▲4 81%
- Fed maintains rate ▼3 20%
- Cut 25bps 2%
- Hike >25bps ▼1 1%
- 1 more1%
Hike 25bps, last 16 days