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Kalshi vs. Polymarket: Who Decides Winners and When Funds Can Leave

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Key claims & sources

Summary in preparation.

Market reaction i

Total crypto marketall crypto assets combined no single asset in the event: read against the whole market

The total crypto market barely moved in the 4 hours after the first headline, after rising 1.2% in the 2 hours before.

$2.6T market cap at the headline
+1.2% 2 h before
0.0% 4 h after
+0.1% 12 h after
First headline

46 prices, one every 30 minutes · The move was larger before the first headline than after: an observation, not an explanation. The market also moves on things nobody publishes.

Coverage timeline

Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.

first
Oct 31 13:17