Kaspa developer targets ownerless prediction market by end-2026

Kaspa is being used here as a layer-1 setting for a prediction market design, which places the market mechanics directly on the network’s base layer rather than outside it. Manyfest, also identified as Sivan Helfer, is the name attached to the plan on Kaspa’s developer forum, and the target window is the end of 2026. That gives builders and users a timetable for when a native market design might move from discussion into a mainnet release.

A prediction market with tradable outcome tokens changes how participants would interact with event-based speculation on Kaspa, because the token structure is part of the protocol design itself. The absence of a central beneficiary matters for who can capture value from the system, and it shifts attention toward the rules that govern issuance and settlement. Bit Cat’s involvement and the late-2026 target show that the project is still in design rather than live deployment.

The tension in this design is between decentralization and market integrity. A market that has no central owner can better fit crypto’s preference for open infrastructure, but the warning about liquidity manipulation in smaller markets shows how thin participation can make pricing and resolution mechanics easier to distort. That is an especially sharp issue for binary outcomes, where the whole system depends on orderly issuance and a credible settlement process.

What remains unresolved is how the Kaspa team will finalize the protocol before the end-of-2026 target and whether the warning on smaller-market manipulation will change the design. The public details do not yet show how the resolution process will work in practice or what safeguards will be added around liquidity. Those answers will determine whether the proposal stays an outline or becomes a usable mainnet product on Kaspa.

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