macroeconomics

Polymarket Bitcoin and Rate Hike Odds Shift as CME Says No Change

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Key claims & sources

Summary in preparation.

Market reaction i

BitcoinBTC the event is about this asset

Bitcoin fell 0.7% in the 4 hours after the first headline, after falling 0.1% in the 2 hours before.

$81,555 price at the headline
-0.1% 2 h before
-0.7% 4 h after
-1.7% 12 h after
First headline

48 prices, one every 30 minutes

Coverage timeline

Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.

first
Oct 16 15:35
Cryptonews.com scoop
Breaks the event: $43M

What Federal funds rate has done before

WhenWhat happenedFigure
39 days ago Federal funds rate: 3.88 (+0.13) rise Oct 2026
2 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.75 (+0.12) rise Sep 2026
3 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Aug 2026
4 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Jul 2026
5 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Jun 2026

FRED series, with the value of each release and its change.

What could happen next i

Fed Decision in December? Polymarket · settles Dec 9 · $94.0k bet in 24 h
76% 25 bps increase
  • 25 bps increase 76%
  • No change ▲1 22%
  • 25 bps decrease <1%
  • 50+ bps decrease <1%
  • 1 more1%
25 bps increase, last 16 days
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Polymarket · settles Jan 1 · $37.7k bet in 24 h
98% 0 (0 bps)
  • 0 (0 bps) 98%
  • 1 (25 bps) 1%
  • 2 (50 bps) <1%
  • 4 (100 bps) <1%
0 (0 bps), last 16 days
Fed Decision in January? Polymarket · settles Jan 28 · $27.3k bet in 24 h
78% No change ▲ 4 pts in 24 h
  • No change ▲4 78%
  • 25 bps increase 18%
  • 25 bps decrease 3%
  • 50+ bps decrease ▼1 <1%
  • 1 more1%
No change, last 16 days