Polymarket puts December Fed hike odds at 85% after hot CPI

26Importance
developingStatus
1News media
Published

Key claims & sources

Summary in preparation.

Market reaction i

Total crypto marketall crypto assets combined no single asset in the event: read against the whole market

The total crypto market fell 1.0% in the 4 hours after the first headline, after rising 0.1% in the 2 hours before.

$2.5T market cap at the headline
+0.1% 2 h before
-1.0% 4 h after
-0.5% 12 h after
First headline

47 prices, one every 30 minutes

Coverage timeline

Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.

first
Nov 10 15:18

What Inflation (US CPI) has done before

WhenWhat happenedFigure
41 days ago Inflation (US CPI): 337.476 (+1.18) rise Oct 2026
2 months ago Inflation (US CPI): 336.298 (+2.17) rise Sep 2026
3 months ago Inflation (US CPI): 334.131 (+1.32) rise Aug 2026
4 months ago Inflation (US CPI): 332.813 (+0.25) rise Jul 2026
5 months ago Inflation (US CPI): 332.568 (-1.41) fall Jun 2026

FRED series, with the value of each release and its change.

What could happen next i

October Inflation US - Annual Polymarket · settles Nov 11 · $93.7k bet in 24 h
97% 3.7% ▲ 4 pts in 24 h
  • 3.7% ▲4 97%
  • 3.6% ▼3 1%
  • 4.0% ▲1 1%
  • 3.8% ▼3 1%
  • 8 more1%
3.7%, last 16 days
Core CPI MoM - October 2026 Polymarket · settles Nov 11 · $41.0k bet in 24 h
100% 0.3% ▲ 68 pts in 24 h
  • 0.3% ▲68 100%
  • 0.2% ▼54 <1%
  • 0.1% ▼13 <1%
  • 0.4% ▼5 <1%
0.3%, last 15 days
October Inflation US - Monthly Polymarket · settles Nov 11 · $15.0k bet in 24 h
100% 0.4% ▲ 92 pts in 24 h
  • 0.4% ▲92 100%
  • 0.2% ▼43 <1%
  • 0.5% ▼1 <1%
  • 0.3% ▼42 <1%
0.4%, last 15 days