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What this rests on
Summary in preparation.
Market reaction
+0.15 %
before publication
-0.03 %
after
$83,605price at publication
13series points
The move was larger before the first headline than after. That is an observation, not an explanation: the market also moves on things nobody publishes.
How the story was built
Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.
first
Oct 1 04:20
first
Oct 1 04:20
first
Oct 1 04:20
first
Oct 1 04:20
first
Oct 1 04:20
first
Oct 1 04:20
first
Oct 1 04:20
Has this happened before?
| When | What happened | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| 18 days ago | NEAR Intents Says It Froze $503,000 in Bitget Hack Funds event | 4 actors in common · 8 news media |
| 23 days ago | Bitget Loses $350M as Wallets Are Drained Across Multiple Chains event | 4 actors in common · 5 news media |
| 18 days ago | Baillie Gifford launches BAGEY, a tokenized bond fund settling in USDC or fiat event | 3 actors in common · 2 news media |
| 18 days ago | Bitcoin Hovers at $84K as Treasury Yields Hold Near Multi-Year Highs event | 3 actors in common · 4 news media |
| 18 days ago | US crypto ETF inflows cool after $3.3B week but streaks hold event | 3 actors in common · 3 news media |
What could happen next
What the prediction markets currently price as likely. This is context, not a forecast of ours: there is money on it, and that is all we show.
0 %
no series
Kalshi · $1,148,516 of open interest · resolves on Oct 2, 2026
0 %
no series
Kalshi · $1,135,683 of open interest · resolves on Oct 6, 2026
9 %
+0 pts
Kalshi · $1,023,423 of open interest · resolves on Jan 1, 2027
5 %
no series
Kalshi · $874,949 of open interest · resolves on Oct 1, 2026