Average Contract Interest Rates on Loans and Discounts (July)

UNCLASSIFIEDAverage Contract Interest Rateson Loans and Discounts (July)25IMPORTANCECLOSED1NEWS MEDIA1PIECESSep 22, 2026 20:35blockboard.net
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What this rests on

Summary in preparation.

Market reaction

We track BTC, but we only have 1 price point in that window. The series is stored every half hour, so newer events will have it. Computing it from two points would not be a reaction, it would be a coincidence.

How the story was built

Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.

first
Sep 22 20:35
Bank of Japan what's new scoop our clock
Breaks the event

What Federal funds rate has done before

WhenWhat happenedFigure
2 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.75 (+0.12) rise Sep 2026
3 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Aug 2026
4 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Jul 2026
5 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Jun 2026
6 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 (-0.01) fall May 2026

FRED series, with the value of each release and its change.

What could happen next i

Fed Decision in October? Polymarket · settles Oct 29 · $434.3k bet in 24 h
86% No change
  • No change 86%
  • 25 bps increase 14%
  • 50+ bps increase <1%
  • 25 bps decrease <1%
Fed decision in Oct 2026? Kalshi · settles Oct 28 · $30.8k bet in 24 h
87% Fed maintains rate
  • Fed maintains rate 87%
  • Hike 25bps 13%
  • Cut 25bps 1%
  • Cut >25bps 1%
  • 1 more1%