78%
25 bps increase
▲ 11 pts in 24 h
- 25 bps increase ▲11 78%
- No change ▼11 20%
- 25 bps decrease <1%
- 50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps increase, last 16 days
macroeconomics
Ever wonder how the Fed's interest rate actually works? We've got answers
0Importance
closedStatus
1News media
1Pieces
- Published
Key claims & sources
Summary in preparation.
Market reaction i
Total crypto marketall crypto assets combined
no single asset in the event: read against the whole market
We only have 0 data points in that window. The series is stored every half hour, so newer events will have it. Computing it from two points would not be a reaction, it would be a coincidence.
Coverage timeline
Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.
first
NPR — Business
scoop
our clock
Sep 22 20:35
NPR — Business
scoop
our clock
Breaks the event
What Federal funds rate has done before
| When | What happened | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| 37 days ago | Federal funds rate: 3.88 (+0.13) rise | Oct 2026 |
| 2 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.75 (+0.12) rise | Sep 2026 |
| 3 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Aug 2026 |
| 4 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Jul 2026 |
| 5 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Jun 2026 |
FRED series, with the value of each release and its change.
What could happen next i
80%
Hike 25bps
▲ 13 pts in 24 h
- Hike 25bps ▲13 80%
- Fed maintains rate ▼12 20%
- Cut 25bps 2%
- Hike >25bps 1%
- 1 more1%
Hike 25bps, last 16 days
98%
0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps) 98%
- 1 (25 bps) 1%
- 2 (50 bps) <1%
- 3 (75 bps) <1%
0 (0 bps), last 16 days