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[Risk Stewards] September 2026 - WETH Interest Rate Adjustment on Base

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AAVEARBETH +1
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Key claims & sources

Summary in preparation.

Market reaction i

EthereumETH the event is about this asset

We only have 1 data point in that window. The series is stored every half hour, so newer events will have it. Computing it from two points would not be a reaction, it would be a coincidence.

Coverage timeline

Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.

first
Sep 22 21:34
Aave governance forum scoop our clock
Breaks the event: $211M and $171M

What Federal funds rate has done before

WhenWhat happenedFigure
37 days ago Federal funds rate: 3.88 (+0.13) rise Oct 2026
2 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.75 (+0.12) rise Sep 2026
3 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Aug 2026
4 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Jul 2026
5 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Jun 2026

FRED series, with the value of each release and its change.

What could happen next i

Fed Decision in December? Polymarket · settles Dec 9 · $1.8M bet in 24 h
78% 25 bps increase ▲ 12 pts in 24 h
  • 25 bps increase ▲12 78%
  • No change ▼11 20%
  • 25 bps decrease <1%
  • 50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps increase, last 16 days
Fed decision in Dec 2026? Kalshi · settles Dec 9 · $371.0k bet in 24 h
80% Hike 25bps ▲ 13 pts in 24 h
  • Hike 25bps ▲13 80%
  • Fed maintains rate ▼12 20%
  • Cut 25bps 2%
  • Hike >25bps 1%
  • 1 more1%
Hike 25bps, last 16 days
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Polymarket · settles Jan 1 · $95.6k bet in 24 h
98% 0 (0 bps)
  • 0 (0 bps) 98%
  • 1 (25 bps) 1%
  • 2 (50 bps) <1%
  • 3 (75 bps) <1%
0 (0 bps), last 16 days