[Risk Stewards] September 2026 - WETH Interest Rate Adjustment on Base
What this rests on
Summary in preparation.
Market reaction
We track ETH, but we only have 1 price point in that window. The series is stored every half hour, so newer events will have it. Computing it from two points would not be a reaction, it would be a coincidence.
How the story was built
Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.
first
Aave governance forum
scoop
our clock
Sep 22 21:34
Aave governance forum
scoop
our clock
Breaks the event: $211M and $171M
What Federal funds rate has done before
| When | What happened | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| 2 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.75 (+0.12) rise | Sep 2026 |
| 3 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Aug 2026 |
| 4 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Jul 2026 |
| 5 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Jun 2026 |
| 6 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 (-0.01) fall | May 2026 |
FRED series, with the value of each release and its change.
What could happen next
What the prediction markets currently price as likely. This is context, not a forecast of ours: there is money on it, and that is all we show.
0 %
no series
Polymarket · $1,201,606 negociados en 24 h · resolves on Oct 1, 2026
0 %
no series
Polymarket · $348,675 negociados en 24 h · resolves on Oct 1, 2026
100 %
no series
Polymarket · $298,585 negociados en 24 h · resolves on Sep 25, 2026
0 %
no series
Polymarket · $290,877 negociados en 24 h · resolves on Sep 30, 2026