86%
No change
- No change 86%
- 25 bps increase 14%
- 50+ bps increase <1%
- 25 bps decrease <1%
[Risk Stewards] August 2026 - Stablecoin Interest Rate Adjustments
Published
What this rests on
Summary in preparation.
Market reaction
We track ENA, but we only have 0 price points in that window. The series is stored every half hour, so newer events will have it. Computing it from two points would not be a reaction, it would be a coincidence.
How the story was built
Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.
first
Aave governance forum
scoop
our clock
Sep 22 21:34
Aave governance forum
scoop
our clock
Breaks the event
What Federal funds rate has done before
| When | What happened | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| 2 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.75 (+0.12) rise | Sep 2026 |
| 3 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Aug 2026 |
| 4 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Jul 2026 |
| 5 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Jun 2026 |
| 6 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 (-0.01) fall | May 2026 |
FRED series, with the value of each release and its change.
What could happen next i
87%
Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate 87%
- Hike 25bps 14%
- Cut 25bps 1%
- Cut >25bps 1%
- 1 more1%
96%
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?
- No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27? 96%