macroeconomics

Will the Fed Raise Interest Rates in October? Key Signal Arrives

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Markets reduced expectations for an October Federal Reserve rate hike after New York Fed President John Williams said there was no need for urgency. One set of pricing put the chance of a 25-basis-point October hike at 68.1%, while another put it below 50%, and one account said the odds fell to around 44%.

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Key claims & sources

✓
One market reading put the probability of a 25-basis-point October hike at 68.1%, with only one more Federal Reserve rate increase priced in through year-end.
Traders Cut October Fed Rate-Hike Bets After Williams Comment
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New York Fed President John Williams said there was no need for urgency on another rate increase, and markets then lowered October rate-hike expectations.
Will the Fed Raise Interest Rates in October? Key Signal Arrives
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A different market snapshot said the probability of an October rate hike had fallen from 70% the week before to below 50% on the day of the note.
Will the Fed Raise Interest Rates in October? Key Signal Arrives
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Another reading put the odds of a 25-basis-point October hike at around 44% after Williams’ remarks.
October Fed Rate Hike Odds Drop to 44% After Williams’ Dovish Remarks

What it means

People watching rate-sensitive markets, including crypto traders, saw a shift in October Fed expectations after Williams’ comments became public. That mattered immediately because the pricing of a quarter-point October hike moved lower in the market snapshots tied to the same day.

Market reaction i

Total crypto marketall crypto assets combined no single asset in the event: read against the whole market
first headline
-0.1% 2 h before
+0.6% 4 h after
$2.9Tmarket cap at publication
12data points

Coverage timeline

Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.

first
Sep 29 21:19
+9 h 26 m
Sep 30 06:45
Coinpedia context
Its angle: coinpedia, appeared, increase; with quotes

What Federal funds rate has done before

WhenWhat happenedFigure
36 days ago Federal funds rate: 3.88 (+0.13) rise Oct 2026
2 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.75 (+0.12) rise Sep 2026
3 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Aug 2026
4 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Jul 2026
5 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Jun 2026

FRED series, with the value of each release and its change.

What could happen next i

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  • 25 bps increase ▼9 68%
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70% Hike 25bps ▼ 10 pts in 24 h
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  • 1 more1%
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97% 0 (0 bps)
  • 0 (0 bps) 97%
  • 1 (25 bps) ▲1 1%
  • 2 (50 bps) <1%
  • 3 (75 bps) <1%
0 (0 bps), last 16 days