macroeconomics

FOMC Polymarket Odds: A Rate Hold Regains the Edge in October Pricing

0Importance
closedStatus
3News media
4Pieces
Published
In
Prediction markets
Also mentions
BTC

Polymarket pricing on the October 27-28 Federal Reserve meeting moved from favoring a 25-basis-point hike to favoring no change over the same week. Across the six updates, the hold side ranged from 57% to 66%, while hike odds fell from the mid-60s to the mid-30s or low-40s. The shift left the October decision unresolved, with some coverage also noting attention to later meetings or to Bitcoin.

Share on X Share on Telegram Share on Reddit Share on WhatsApp

Key claims & sources

✓
Another Polymarket snapshot on September 30 put the probability of no change at 58.5% and the chance of a 25-basis-point hike at 41.5%.
FOMC Polymarket Odds: A Rate Hold Regains the Edge in October Pricing
✓
On September 27, Polymarket traders priced a 64% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the Federal Reserve’s October 27-28 meeting.
October Rate Polymarket Odds Flip: Is a Fed Pause Likely?
✓
By September 30, the same contract showed no change at 57% and a 25-basis-point hike at 42%.
October Rate Polymarket Odds Flip: Is a Fed Pause Likely?
✓
One update put the hold probability at 64% and the chance of a 25-basis-point increase at 36%, while also showing higher cumulative hike odds by December.
Markets Put 64% Odds on Fed Holding Rates Steady in October

What it means

What has changed in practice is the market’s balance on the October 27-28 decision: earlier snapshots had a hike in front, and later snapshots put no change ahead. What has not changed is that the contract still leaves both outcomes active, and one update also kept an eye on higher cumulative hike odds by December. That means the October contract is still a pricing screen, not a settled policy outcome.

Market reaction i

Data NetworkDATA the event is about this asset
first headline
+0.5% 2 h before
+0.5% 4 h after
$0.2184price at publication
12data points

The move was larger before the first headline than after. That is an observation, not an explanation: the market also moves on things nobody publishes.

Coverage timeline

Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.

first
Sep 30 10:00
Cryptonews.com scoop
Breaks the event: $31B and $28.5B
+4 h 24 m
Sep 30 14:25
Coinspeaker context
Its angle: speculative, government, attractive
+8 h 24 m
Sep 30 18:25
Crypto Briefing context
Its angle: influencing, uncertainty, adjustments
+1 d 4 h
Oct 1 14:42
Coinspeaker echo
No new facts: 9dxuptesn4, njn7mb6blx, meanwhile

What Federal funds rate has done before

WhenWhat happenedFigure
36 days ago Federal funds rate: 3.88 (+0.13) rise Oct 2026
2 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.75 (+0.12) rise Sep 2026
3 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Aug 2026
4 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Jul 2026
5 months ago Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change Jun 2026

FRED series, with the value of each release and its change.

What could happen next i

Fed Decision in December? Polymarket · settles Dec 9 · $2.7M bet in 24 h
68% 25 bps increase ▼ 9 pts in 24 h
  • 25 bps increase ▼9 68%
  • No change ▲8 30%
  • 25 bps decrease <1%
  • 50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps increase, last 16 days
Fed decision in Dec 2026? Kalshi · settles Dec 9 · $256.6k bet in 24 h
70% Hike 25bps ▼ 10 pts in 24 h
  • Hike 25bps ▼10 70%
  • Fed maintains rate ▲10 32%
  • Cut 25bps 1%
  • Hike >25bps 1%
  • 1 more1%
Hike 25bps, last 16 days
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Polymarket · settles Jan 1 · $139.5k bet in 24 h
97% 0 (0 bps)
  • 0 (0 bps) 97%
  • 1 (25 bps) ▲1 1%
  • 2 (50 bps) <1%
  • 3 (75 bps) <1%
0 (0 bps), last 16 days