analysis

Kalshi Probes Bets on Trump’s Press Secretary Pick, WSJ Reports

0Importance
closedStatus
4News media
4Pieces
Published

Kalshi’s market on the White House press secretary appointment settled after Katie Zacharia’s selection was reported and then confirmed by President Donald Trump on Oct. 9. The two reports also describe a small set of pre-announcement wagers and note that some withdrawal rules tied to the contract remain unclear.

Key claims & sources

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Three wagers worth about $19, $74, and $80 came before reports that Katie Zacharia had been selected.
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The contract on the appointment has settled Yes, while the withdrawal limits for individual traders remain unclear.
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Katie Zacharia was priced at about 1% before President Donald Trump confirmed her appointment on Oct. 9.
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Three bets in the market could pay out thousands of dollars if they settle successfully.

What it means

Before the appointment was confirmed, the market had Katie Zacharia around 1%, and there were three bets positioned to pay out thousands if they settle successfully. In practice, that means the market allowed small wagers around an event that was still unconfirmed, while the later confirmation marks the point at which the posted pricing no longer reflected the pre-announcement setup.

Market reaction i

Total crypto marketall crypto assets combined no single asset in the event: read against the whole market
first headline
+0.2% 2 h before
+0.2% 4 h after
$2.8Tmarket cap at publication
12data points

Coverage timeline

Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.

first
Oct 9 21:57
+2 h 56 m
Oct 10 00:53
Crypto Briefing context
Its angle: investigation, vulnerability, investigates
+20 h 38 m
Oct 10 18:35
The Block context
Its angle: announcement, totaling, reported
+23 h 36 m
Oct 10 21:33
BeInCrypto context
Its angle: commission, contracts, president; with quotes

Where this sits in the Bitcoin series

WhenWhat happenedFigure
1.1 years ago BTC at $115,227 high today it sits -34.3% from there
4 months ago BTC at $58,566 low today it sits +29.3% from there

From what we have stored, starting 1.1 years ago.