macroeconomics

US Inflation Hits 3.7%, Sinking Bitcoin and Gold: Will the Fed Hike in October?

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US consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, while core inflation came in at 2.6% versus a 2.5% forecast. After the inflation reading, Bitcoin, gold, and broader crypto moved lower, and Treasury yields moved higher.

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Key claims & sources

✓
US consumer prices increased 3.7% in the year to September, above the 3.6% forecast.
US Inflation Hits 3.7%, Sinking Bitcoin and Gold: Will the Fed Hike in October?
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Core inflation was 2.6%, above the 2.5% expectation.
US Inflation Hits 3.7%, Sinking Bitcoin and Gold: Will the Fed Hike in October?
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September CPI was 3.7%, above forecasts, and Treasury yields moved higher while crypto declined with stocks.
Bitcoin Falls as Hot Inflation Puts a Fed Hike Back on the Table

What it means

US consumers, crypto traders, and gold holders saw a fresh inflation print that landed above forecasts, and markets reacted right away. Bitcoin and gold moved lower within minutes, while Treasury yields moved higher after the September CPI reading.

In practice, the inflation number put a rate-hike discussion back in view, and that is the main change in what market participants were watching. What did not change is that the report was still a monthly CPI release with a headline and core measure, and both were still compared with forecasts.

Market reaction i

BitcoinBTC the event is about this asset
first headline
+0.3% 2 h before
-2.3% 4 h after
$83,593price at publication
12data points

Coverage timeline

Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.

first
Oct 14 12:35
+24 min
Oct 14 12:59
The Defiant context
Its angle: accelerates, accounted, annually
+58 min
Oct 14 13:33
NPR — Business context
Its angle: administration, souriment, security; with quotes
+1 h 25 m
Oct 14 14:00
NEXO adds
Adds $2800B
+1 h 55 m
Oct 14 14:30
The Coin Republic context
Its angle: cryptocurrencies, specifically, expectations
+2 h 16 m
Oct 14 14:51
Decrypt echo
No new facts: dragging, sending, stocks

What Inflation (US CPI) has done before

WhenWhat happenedFigure
2 months ago Inflation (US CPI): 336.298 (+2.17) rise Sep 2026
3 months ago Inflation (US CPI): 334.131 (+1.32) rise Aug 2026
4 months ago Inflation (US CPI): 332.813 (+0.25) rise Jul 2026
5 months ago Inflation (US CPI): 332.568 (-1.41) fall Jun 2026
6 months ago Inflation (US CPI): 333.979 (+1.57) rise May 2026

FRED series, with the value of each release and its change.

What could happen next i

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76% 25 bps increase ▲ 11 pts in 24 h
  • 25 bps increase ▲11 76%
  • No change ▼11 20%
  • 25 bps decrease <1%
  • 50+ bps decrease <1%
  • 1 more1%
25 bps increase, last 16 days
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78% Hike 25bps ▲ 12 pts in 24 h
  • Hike 25bps ▲12 78%
  • Fed maintains rate ▼10 23%
  • Cut 25bps 2%
  • Hike >25bps 1%
  • 1 more1%
Hike 25bps, last 16 days
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98% 0 (0 bps)
  • 0 (0 bps) 98%
  • 1 (25 bps) 1%
  • 2 (50 bps) <1%
  • 3 (75 bps) <1%
0 (0 bps), last 16 days