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Fed Week Puts Stocks, Bitcoin, and DXY on Collision Course Before $11 Billion Expiry

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Summary in preparation.

Market reaction i

BitcoinBTC it is the asset of the company or protocol in the event
first headline
+0.3% 2 h before
-0.5% 4 h after
$80,733price at publication
12data points

Coverage timeline

Every piece in order, with the time its news medium declares — if it is not believable we use ours and say so — and what it added to what was already known at that point. Arriving first is not the same as adding something.

first
Oct 25 17:54

What could happen next i

Fed Decision in December? Polymarket · settles Dec 9 · $2.3M bet in 24 h
64% 25 bps increase ▼ 13 pts in 24 h
  • 25 bps increase ▼13 64%
  • No change ▲10 32%
  • 25 bps decrease ▲1 1%
  • 50+ bps increase <1%
  • 1 more1%
25 bps increase, last 16 days
Fed decision in Dec 2026? Kalshi · settles Dec 9 · $228.8k bet in 24 h
65% Hike 25bps ▼ 15 pts in 24 h
  • Hike 25bps ▼15 65%
  • Fed maintains rate ▲15 35%
  • Cut 25bps ▲1 2%
  • Hike >25bps ▼1 1%
  • 1 more1%
Hike 25bps, last 16 days
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Polymarket · settles Jan 1 · $128.3k bet in 24 h
97% 0 (0 bps) ▼ 1 pts in 24 h
  • 0 (0 bps) ▼1 97%
  • 1 (25 bps) <1%
  • 2 (50 bps) <1%
  • 3 (75 bps) <1%
0 (0 bps), last 16 days