Kalshi Opens Single-Stock Perpetual Futures Trading

Kalshi built its business as a CFTC-regulated prediction market before adding crypto perpetual swaps, a leverage format invented on offshore exchanges like BitMEX in 2016 and never previously sold on regulated U.S. equities. On Nov. 5 it carried that same swaps structure into stocks, listing contracts on Palantir, Meta, SpaceX, McDonald's and dozens of others drawn from the NYSE and Nasdaq, bypassing the broker-dealer and options infrastructure that has handled leveraged equity exposure until now.

Traders can now open leveraged positions on single stocks - AAPL and AMZN near five times - without a margin account, options approval or a traditional broker, settling instead through Kalshi's CFTC-licensed swaps venue. That pulls volume away from listed options and futures desks and from retail brokers that have owned equity leverage until now, while handing Kalshi a foothold in equity derivatives it lacked a year ago. Holders gain cheaper, faster leverage; incumbents lose order flow and the fees tied to it.

Equity-linked leverage has historically been SEC territory, and Kalshi's bet is that framing these products as CFTC-regulated swaps lets it offer stock exposure the SEC would never approve under its own rules. A pending court challenge over that regulatory basis could unwind the whole category, not just Kalshi's version of it. Whether a 'prediction market' wrapper can legitimately carry five-times leverage on Apple or Amazon shares is not yet settled law. (per thedefiant.io)

The pending court challenge over the regulatory basis for stock perps is the fork in the road: a ruling against Kalshi would force it to pull contracts on Palantir, Meta, SpaceX and the rest of its 50-plus roster off the platform, while a ruling in its favor would let the CFTC-swaps route stand as a template other exchanges can copy for leveraged single-stock products.