Will the Fed Raise Interest Rates in October? Key Signal Arrives
Markets reduced expectations for an October Federal Reserve rate hike after New York Fed President John Williams said there was no need for urgency. One set of pricing put the chance of a 25-basis-point October hike at 68.1%, while another put it below 50%, and one account said the odds fell to around 44%.
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People watching rate-sensitive markets, including crypto traders, saw a shift in October Fed expectations after Williams’ comments became public. That mattered immediately because the pricing of a quarter-point October hike moved lower in the market snapshots tied to the same day.
Market reaction
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context
What Federal funds rate has done before
| When | What happened | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| 2 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.75 (+0.12) rise | Sep 2026 |
| 3 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Aug 2026 |
| 4 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Jul 2026 |
| 5 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 no change | Jun 2026 |
| 6 months ago | Federal funds rate: 3.63 (-0.01) fall | May 2026 |
FRED series, with the value of each release and its change.
What could happen next
What the prediction markets currently price as likely. This is context, not a forecast of ours: there is money on it, and that is all we show.